Weren’t we just in Atlantic City setting up the draft board? The room was quiet; you could hear the pages being
turned as everyone was taking last minute notes. Cheat sheets, highlighters, clipboards, laptops and fantasy
football magazines laid out across the room all in preparation of that first glorious pick. And now, WHAM! it’s Week
10 already. So how did your preparation turn out? Are you already looking toward next year’s draft, or still scanning
the waiver wire? Either way, I think we can all agree that the season went way too fast, but here we are, close to
rounding up another successful year of ROFF (silent L). Before we take a look forward to the playoffs let’s take a
look back and see where this season started.
turned as everyone was taking last minute notes. Cheat sheets, highlighters, clipboards, laptops and fantasy
football magazines laid out across the room all in preparation of that first glorious pick. And now, WHAM! it’s Week
10 already. So how did your preparation turn out? Are you already looking toward next year’s draft, or still scanning
the waiver wire? Either way, I think we can all agree that the season went way too fast, but here we are, close to
rounding up another successful year of ROFF (silent L). Before we take a look forward to the playoffs let’s take a
look back and see where this season started.
Learning From History
So this is my second article of the 2005 season, my first
being that dead-on odds article originally written in July.
For the sake of full disclosure, let’s take quick look at
how those odds are doing, shall we…
…hmmm…..clearly seems that making up equations only
works if you know what you’re doing. Either that or
history is complete bunk and every year we all get an
equal chance to grab that golden ROFF trophy. I think I
like the latter.
So this is my second article of the 2005 season, my first
being that dead-on odds article originally written in July.
For the sake of full disclosure, let’s take quick look at
how those odds are doing, shall we…
…hmmm…..clearly seems that making up equations only
works if you know what you’re doing. Either that or
history is complete bunk and every year we all get an
equal chance to grab that golden ROFF trophy. I think I
like the latter.
That being said, lets take a look at some more history…
In 2003, the top seven teams
heading into Week 10 all made the
playoffs and the eighth team in
(Colts) had only 3 wins at Week 10,
but finished strong by doubling their
win total in the final 4 games,
sneaking in by 2 points!
heading into Week 10 all made the
playoffs and the eighth team in
(Colts) had only 3 wins at Week 10,
but finished strong by doubling their
win total in the final 4 games,
sneaking in by 2 points!
Again in 2004, the top seven
teams all made the playoffs,
and the eighth to make it in
(5SS) finished strong going
4-0! I wonder how that
ended...
teams all made the playoffs,
and the eighth to make it in
(5SS) finished strong going
4-0! I wonder how that
ended...
So that is quite a trend these past 2 years: top seven are in and eight is out. Sadly, Yahoo! will not provide data
from our inaugural season, so we can either make it up or make do with the last two years. Write your
congressmen!
But, based on the information that we do have, there are several things to keep your eye on. In the past two years,
each team with a record above .500 heading into Week 10 made the playoffs. So the million dollar question is…..
how many teams currently sitting below .500 push their way past those ranked above them and surge into the
playoffs? Fellow owners: the march starts now, in Week 10. Don’t think I am serious? How about this: in 2003 and
2004 that 4-5 team sitting in eighth place who thought they were on the right side of the playoff divide, but actually
missed the playoffs, started their run on the wrong foot by losing their Week 10 game. Last year, it was Colts losing
to my team – so Lukin, in order to continue the trend, you unfortunately have to lose this week (to me), or I will have
nothing to write about next year. Kidding! No, not really. Yes I am. No, I’m not. But really, I mean it’s history. You
can’t beat that, look at Napoleon. Scorched Earth People! Nick, I know you’re with me here.
While most of our eyes tend to drift up in the standings, you may have missed the tiny but true fact (Jason stop
reading, please – and get off the ledge!) that in the last 2 years, the last place team in week 10 remained their for
the rest of the year. Not good news for the suddenly romantic Sherm. But there is LaDainian at the end of the
tunnel.
The current environment is actually more favorable than last year’s for a team ranked below eighth to make a playoff
appearance. Which could lead to more than one team currently ranked below 8 to make a run. At this time last year
there were four 4-5 bubble teams, the same as this year. However, at this time last year there were five teams with
three losses or less. These are teams that are typically too far ahead for sub .500 teams to catch. This year there
are only four such teams, meaning a win can catapult a lower ranked team further up the standing than last year.
Forecasting the Future
Enough of the history. Onto what lies ahead.
from our inaugural season, so we can either make it up or make do with the last two years. Write your
congressmen!
But, based on the information that we do have, there are several things to keep your eye on. In the past two years,
each team with a record above .500 heading into Week 10 made the playoffs. So the million dollar question is…..
how many teams currently sitting below .500 push their way past those ranked above them and surge into the
playoffs? Fellow owners: the march starts now, in Week 10. Don’t think I am serious? How about this: in 2003 and
2004 that 4-5 team sitting in eighth place who thought they were on the right side of the playoff divide, but actually
missed the playoffs, started their run on the wrong foot by losing their Week 10 game. Last year, it was Colts losing
to my team – so Lukin, in order to continue the trend, you unfortunately have to lose this week (to me), or I will have
nothing to write about next year. Kidding! No, not really. Yes I am. No, I’m not. But really, I mean it’s history. You
can’t beat that, look at Napoleon. Scorched Earth People! Nick, I know you’re with me here.
While most of our eyes tend to drift up in the standings, you may have missed the tiny but true fact (Jason stop
reading, please – and get off the ledge!) that in the last 2 years, the last place team in week 10 remained their for
the rest of the year. Not good news for the suddenly romantic Sherm. But there is LaDainian at the end of the
tunnel.
The current environment is actually more favorable than last year’s for a team ranked below eighth to make a playoff
appearance. Which could lead to more than one team currently ranked below 8 to make a run. At this time last year
there were four 4-5 bubble teams, the same as this year. However, at this time last year there were five teams with
three losses or less. These are teams that are typically too far ahead for sub .500 teams to catch. This year there
are only four such teams, meaning a win can catapult a lower ranked team further up the standing than last year.
Forecasting the Future
Enough of the history. Onto what lies ahead.
To the left is the remaining schedule for each of the teams,
ranked by difficulty of schedule. Last year, there were six
teams whose remaining schedule was above .500, their
record in those games was 10-14; there were 2 teams
whose remaining schedule was exactly .500 and their
closing record was 6-2; and the six teams whose opponent’s
records were less than .500 finished an even 12-12.
Consider the maximum strength of schedule you can face is
a 27-9 record and 4144 points, no doubt the Bandits have a
tough road ahead.
ranked by difficulty of schedule. Last year, there were six
teams whose remaining schedule was above .500, their
record in those games was 10-14; there were 2 teams
whose remaining schedule was exactly .500 and their
closing record was 6-2; and the six teams whose opponent’s
records were less than .500 finished an even 12-12.
Consider the maximum strength of schedule you can face is
a 27-9 record and 4144 points, no doubt the Bandits have a
tough road ahead.
Predicting exactly what needs to happen each week is impossible with four weeks still to go, but certain teams have
put themselves in good position to make the postseason trip.
EIGHT WINS – LOCK!
In a remarkable break from my first two years in the league, I am now on the asterisk-appearing cusp of a second
straight playoff berth. Based on the remaining schedule, it is impossible for me not to make the playoffs. I think the
conspiracy preventing an asterisk from popping up next to my name is because Yahoo! calculates playoff berths
based strictly on records and does not take into account the schedule. For example, the ninth place team is Colt
45s, victor of 4 games. If everyone wins out and I lose out then Colts and I will have the same record and
theoretically I could miss the playoffs. But based on the scheduled matchups it is impossible for the 9th place team
to have 8 wins, they will have less. Which means I be in yo. However there is a possibility of all 8 playoff teams
making the playoffs with 8 wins apiece!
Moral of the story – you win 8 you are invited to the postseason. Make your reservations now!
SEVEN WINS – In the Navid
Really the top and bottom of the standings are all we can write about with 4 weeks to go. Bubble people, your
column will come, don’t you worry.
If eight wins is in, Nomads needs just one win in the remaining 4 weeks and he qualifies. If fortune fails, Nomads
loses out and others step up, Nomads could be watching the playoffs from home. His next 3 games are against
teams on the playoff bubble, which means they will be gunning for the champ. So don’t go soft at the finish!
SIX WINS – In control
Nose and the Bandits, what an unlikely duo! But they are in a most enviable position. Six wins is an almost-
guarantee. Last year, Brian had the fortune of owning a 6-3 record at this time, but had the misfortune of blowing
that lead with a nasty case of 0-4. But don’t feel too bad because he still made the playoffs. That is the luxury
these two have, but I don’t recommend indulging on their good fortune.
FIVE WINS – History is on your side
Five wins is not a sure thing, but it is a real good place to be. Going just 2-2 in the remaining games puts you at 7-6
and a 7-6 team has always made the playoffs. So these two teams are just looking to continue what they have been
doing all season.
FOUR WINS – Horsemen of the Apocalypse
For 4-5 teams, the biggest separating factor is points because they will likely be the teams tied for that last spot into
the playoffs at the end of the year. And what determines who goes and who does not, is the point totals. This year
Blade has almost 200 more points than propaganda and yet they have the same record. His point total puts Blade
in the best position of this group to make the playoffs.
The big game this week for the group is Blade and Colts. The winner will be at .500 and looking good and the loser
will be two games under .500 with three games to go and feeling bad. A loss this week for anyone in this group
creates must-win games in the next three weeks. Whether he knows it or not from his Honeymoon, Colts has a big
impact on this group since he plays both Blade and MwR in the next two weeks.
Last year there were four 4-5 teams and two of them made the playoffs, Nomads and 5SS. Champions the both of
them. This year another champion lurks, and you know he is plotting his long awaited revolution, bloodless of
course. propaganda sits quietly at the bottom of the pack making roster move after roster move.
THREE WINS – Must win games
Some inspiration: Colts are the only team on record to start 3-6 and make the playoffs and that was thanks to a
strong 3-1 finish in 2003.
For the second year in a row, Born faces one of the most difficult remaining schedules, however, last year that
meant a 3-1 finish. If he can duplicate that finish this year, Eli could be in the playoffs in reality and fantasy.
The Quackers have made some strong trades to put his team in position for a late season run. A chic preseason
pick, Parker is looking to find his way to the playoffs after his first year without a postseason appearance.
Like the Quackers, the Tools have an easy remaining schedule, but even with that, they will need help from the
teams above them to make it in.
TWO WINS – a goal for some a home to none.
ONE WIN – don’t lose anymore.
You may think that even if Jason wins his final four games he still can’t make the playoffs, because how could a team
with 5 wins make the playoffs, right? Not so fast their, he definitely is still alive. Granted you can be alive and in a
coma. Or you can be alive and in an iron lung, or alive but sleeping, or alive but sitting at a desk working on excel
all day. Sigh. The point is, he is alive people! ALIVE!
But if he loses he is dead. (sorry)
And that concludes the first column. Return to your daily lives.
put themselves in good position to make the postseason trip.
EIGHT WINS – LOCK!
In a remarkable break from my first two years in the league, I am now on the asterisk-appearing cusp of a second
straight playoff berth. Based on the remaining schedule, it is impossible for me not to make the playoffs. I think the
conspiracy preventing an asterisk from popping up next to my name is because Yahoo! calculates playoff berths
based strictly on records and does not take into account the schedule. For example, the ninth place team is Colt
45s, victor of 4 games. If everyone wins out and I lose out then Colts and I will have the same record and
theoretically I could miss the playoffs. But based on the scheduled matchups it is impossible for the 9th place team
to have 8 wins, they will have less. Which means I be in yo. However there is a possibility of all 8 playoff teams
making the playoffs with 8 wins apiece!
Moral of the story – you win 8 you are invited to the postseason. Make your reservations now!
SEVEN WINS – In the Navid
Really the top and bottom of the standings are all we can write about with 4 weeks to go. Bubble people, your
column will come, don’t you worry.
If eight wins is in, Nomads needs just one win in the remaining 4 weeks and he qualifies. If fortune fails, Nomads
loses out and others step up, Nomads could be watching the playoffs from home. His next 3 games are against
teams on the playoff bubble, which means they will be gunning for the champ. So don’t go soft at the finish!
SIX WINS – In control
Nose and the Bandits, what an unlikely duo! But they are in a most enviable position. Six wins is an almost-
guarantee. Last year, Brian had the fortune of owning a 6-3 record at this time, but had the misfortune of blowing
that lead with a nasty case of 0-4. But don’t feel too bad because he still made the playoffs. That is the luxury
these two have, but I don’t recommend indulging on their good fortune.
FIVE WINS – History is on your side
Five wins is not a sure thing, but it is a real good place to be. Going just 2-2 in the remaining games puts you at 7-6
and a 7-6 team has always made the playoffs. So these two teams are just looking to continue what they have been
doing all season.
FOUR WINS – Horsemen of the Apocalypse
For 4-5 teams, the biggest separating factor is points because they will likely be the teams tied for that last spot into
the playoffs at the end of the year. And what determines who goes and who does not, is the point totals. This year
Blade has almost 200 more points than propaganda and yet they have the same record. His point total puts Blade
in the best position of this group to make the playoffs.
The big game this week for the group is Blade and Colts. The winner will be at .500 and looking good and the loser
will be two games under .500 with three games to go and feeling bad. A loss this week for anyone in this group
creates must-win games in the next three weeks. Whether he knows it or not from his Honeymoon, Colts has a big
impact on this group since he plays both Blade and MwR in the next two weeks.
Last year there were four 4-5 teams and two of them made the playoffs, Nomads and 5SS. Champions the both of
them. This year another champion lurks, and you know he is plotting his long awaited revolution, bloodless of
course. propaganda sits quietly at the bottom of the pack making roster move after roster move.
THREE WINS – Must win games
Some inspiration: Colts are the only team on record to start 3-6 and make the playoffs and that was thanks to a
strong 3-1 finish in 2003.
For the second year in a row, Born faces one of the most difficult remaining schedules, however, last year that
meant a 3-1 finish. If he can duplicate that finish this year, Eli could be in the playoffs in reality and fantasy.
The Quackers have made some strong trades to put his team in position for a late season run. A chic preseason
pick, Parker is looking to find his way to the playoffs after his first year without a postseason appearance.
Like the Quackers, the Tools have an easy remaining schedule, but even with that, they will need help from the
teams above them to make it in.
TWO WINS – a goal for some a home to none.
ONE WIN – don’t lose anymore.
You may think that even if Jason wins his final four games he still can’t make the playoffs, because how could a team
with 5 wins make the playoffs, right? Not so fast their, he definitely is still alive. Granted you can be alive and in a
coma. Or you can be alive and in an iron lung, or alive but sleeping, or alive but sitting at a desk working on excel
all day. Sigh. The point is, he is alive people! ALIVE!
But if he loses he is dead. (sorry)
And that concludes the first column. Return to your daily lives.
