In the weeks leading up to the presidential election, there was a cloud of uncertainty over who would be the next President. No one could unequivocally
declare the outcome. McCain or Obama? Red or Blue? Battleground states? Terrorism? Financial chaos? White voters? Blue collar workers?
Women? Undecided? And could the polls even be trusted?
But on election night, as the ballots were closing and the landslide was beginning, it all fell into place. And the outcome seemed so obvious and so just.
How could there have been any other result? And yet here we find ourselves in a similar posture, waiting nervously over the next four weeks - not knowing
who will make it to the playoffs and who among us will take home the Gregg Moore Memorial Trophy? I have a feeling that at next year’s draft, we will all
look back at this year and it will seem so obvious…
There are a lot of reasons to be concerned as we plunge into Week 10. There are TEN teams within one game of the 8th ranked team. That is more
teams clustered together going into Week 10 than in any past season. Two losses can shuttle a top team to the opposite end of the standings, while two
wins can catapult a team up to the playoffs. This large middle ground means that there is a lot still to be settled.
As you all know – there isn’t a lot that can be predicted about the playoffs with four weeks remaining. So most of this article will focus on trends from our
six glorious years together. The few headlines I can share with you are these:
Double G is in
There is no scenario in which I do not make the playoffs. At the extreme, there can be seven 8-win teams, and since eight make it to the playoffs, I qualify.
Two year playoff drought. Done.
The story of the asterisk
The reason I say that I am in, and yet I do not have an asterisk by my team name in the standings is because Yahoo! only accounts for the record of the
9th place team in relation to your team. In this case, Nose has 5 losses, I have 1 and there are 4 games remaining. Which means if I lose out and Nose
wins out we will have the same record and it will come down to points. But based on the schedule it is impossible for the 8th and 9th place teams to each
have 8 wins. In order for Double G to get that (currently invisible) asterisk, I can either win or two 4-5 teams can lose this week.
Shermtanks Win they be In
Based on the same logic above, if the Shermtanks win eight games they will be in the playoffs. They may not get the coveted asterisk, but it will be
implied. At the same time, going winless these last four weeks could drop Shermtanks into a tie for the playoffs. However, because of points, even if this
were to happen Shermtanks would probably still qualify. Shermtanks will receive an asterisk with a win this week (by beating a 4-5 team, C3) and if one of
the three other 4-5 team loses this week.
Five Second Stare is Alive and Well
Even with a loss, 5SS CANNOT be eliminated. While at the same time, going undefeated does not guarantee a playoff berth. 5SS needs to win and needs
some help.
Record matters more than Points
One thing we always say to owners with a bad record but a high point total is that you will be safe – you have a lot of points. I wanted to find out if this was
true. I looked back over the Week 10 standings of the last six years and ranked the teams by W/L (the actual standings) and also by their points. I then
compared those two sorts to the final list of playoff teams. What I discovered was that the W/L record is a better indicator of whether the team eventually
makes the playoffs.
In 2002
Nuggets
Beyond the importance of discovering the value of a team’s record over a team’s points, I learned a few other interesting nuggets.
Fancy Charts (2002-2007)
These charts looked better in my head, but since I took the time to create them you have to take the time to scroll through them. Authorial Power.
The two charts show the same thing at different points of the season. Bell curve technology. The blue shaded area indicates the teams that eventually
made the playoffs, the red area represents those who missed it. The first chart shows the teams over the last six years as they stood going into Week 10.
For example, there have been five 7-win teams and all of them made the playoffs (all blue), while there have been four 2-win teams and none of them
made the playoffs (all red).
Interesting bits to take from this chart:
What this chart really shows is that the playoffs come down to 7-6 and 6-7. No 5-8 team has ever made the playoffs and no 8-5 team has missed the
playoffs. And only one 7-6 team (MINE! Again!) has missed the playoffs. This year, every team is in range of that blue 6-7 target. Well…everyone except
mine and Jason’s. (zing!)
Streaking can be fun…
These last four games are crucial to playoff hopes.
Going 4-0: This has happened only six times in the last six years. Navid did it last year and every team to accomplish this season ending streak was
rewarded with a playoff berth. No team that went 4-0 at the end has ever won the championship.
Going 3-1: In the last six years, 22 teams finished the season with this streak. Of those 22 teams, only three missed the playoffs. Every other team made
the playoffs.
Going 1-3: This less than stellar streak has happened 19 times and only three teams came out of the skid into the playoffs. (not recommended)
Going 0-4: Dread the thought. This has happened to 8 teams over the years. And of that esteemed crew there are 2 Toilet Bowl Winners, three 13th
place finishes and even one playoff team (Brian in 2004, who had enough points to overcome a hard charging 3-1 team led by Nick)
Marc and Brian: Both of these owners have the same record this year as they had the last 2 years at this point. Marc went 3-1 in 2006 to make the
playoffs and finished 5th, in 2007 he went 0-4 and missed the playoffs. Brian went 1-3 both years and missed the playoffs both times.
Playoff Steaks: Some teams have lined up a few consecutive post-season appearances. Steaks that are on the line this year: Navid (last four years),
Brock, VA (last three years), Cantor, Josh, Sherman (last two years)
Playoff Droughts: While a few teams get used to being in the post-season, these teams haven’t been there for the last two years: Brian, Scott, Nick and
Dave.
Winning Seasons: These teams have a consecutive season winning streak on the line: Brock, VA and Navid (past three seasons have all been winning
seasons), Cantor, Josh and Sherman (past two seasons)
Losing Seasons: And some teams have just had bad luck for some time: Brian has had a losing season for the last five years, Dave for the last two and
Nick has NEVER had a winning season – maybe this will be his year!
Week 10 Games
Nomads vs. Colts: (5-4 vs. 5-4) This game will push one team into likely playoff territory, and it will drop the other back to the pack of bubble (gum) teams.
This game is probably more important for the Colts, as their remaining schedule includes only teams with the same record or below. Nomads plays NJJ
next week, so a loss here could be made up with a win next week.
Tools vs. FBC: (4-5 vs. 3-6) An FBC win and these two have the same record. FBC still has a shot at coming out with a winning record this season.
Peyton has a good upcoming schedule. Tools only play teams ranked below them – which means that the only way for this team to move up is for teams
above them to lose. Losses will be more costly for the Tools here on out.
5SS vs. fair trade: (2-7 vs. 4-5) The march back continues…Both owners pulled off trades this week in hopes of triggering a late season playoff push. 5SS
has the easiest remaining schedule in the league. The highest ranked team they play is Nose in the final game of the season. If 5SS strings a few
victories together – that game could be VERY meaningful. fair trade is looking for their first winning season in franchise history.
BDay vs Born: (3-6 vs. 5-4) guess who has more total points? But scoring points does not guarantee victories. We discussed this. BDay’s remaining
schedule includes all teams ranked above them – which means each victory will hoist them up closer to the playoffs and bring another team closer to
missing the playoffs. Born pulled off a trade for a new RB. The final game of Born’s regular season is against the Colts, another 5-4 team and owner of
Jonathan Stewart, the counterpart to Born’s new RB …
C3 vs. Sherm: (4-5 vs. 7-2) C3 has the hardest remaining schedule (Sherm, Born, Colts, NJJ – 23-13 record). C3 pulled off the first big trade of the year,
acquiring MJD – who when teamed with a healthy Reggie Bush could provide a strong core for a late charging team. Sherm is “in” the playoffs and if he
could bench his players to keep them healthy for the playoffs I am sure he would.
Pigs vs. Nose: (3-6 vs. 4-5) Both early season favorites are in a terrible free fall – which team will continue to fall? Btw, does anyone else miss Jarrett?
Because I do. Where are you buddy!? Nose has the lead in terms of record, but Nose’s point total is extremely low, and a few losses could drop this team
to the bottom of the standings very quickly. A loss for Pigs would be difficult as it would make 6-7 the best record possible with a game against (the HOT)
GG looming at the end of the year.
GG vs. NJJ: (8-1 vs. 6-3) Both appear safe, for now. NJJ has a difficult schedule ahead in terms of record (20-16), while GG has the opposite (16-20). NJJ’
s biggest concern is at QB. Losing two starting QBs in one season presents a big challenge, but hopefully a 6-3 record will insulate them from missing
post-season action.
Predictions and Commentary
This year reminds me a lot of the 2005 Season. Both years featured an 8-1 team, a single 7-2 team (with more points than #1), four 4-5 teams (ranked 7-
10) and three 3-6 teams. 2005 was the last year any team finished 6-7 and both of those 6-7 teams made the playoffs. That was also the only year a 5-4
team missed the playoffs and the only year that two teams ranked below 8th going into Week 10 made the playoffs. With the large group of bubble (gum)
teams, I think this season is anything but decided. I predict that over the next few weeks, teams will bob up and down in the standings and in the end I
would not be surprised to see two 6-7 teams return to the playoffs.
And in case you were curious who won the season in 2005. The team that won was that 7-2 team with the most points in the league. And the team that
won the Toilet Bowl? Shermtanks…okay, so its not exactly the same.
And remember no one can be eliminated this week!!
Good luck to everyone – and enjoy the games.
declare the outcome. McCain or Obama? Red or Blue? Battleground states? Terrorism? Financial chaos? White voters? Blue collar workers?
Women? Undecided? And could the polls even be trusted?
But on election night, as the ballots were closing and the landslide was beginning, it all fell into place. And the outcome seemed so obvious and so just.
How could there have been any other result? And yet here we find ourselves in a similar posture, waiting nervously over the next four weeks - not knowing
who will make it to the playoffs and who among us will take home the Gregg Moore Memorial Trophy? I have a feeling that at next year’s draft, we will all
look back at this year and it will seem so obvious…
There are a lot of reasons to be concerned as we plunge into Week 10. There are TEN teams within one game of the 8th ranked team. That is more
teams clustered together going into Week 10 than in any past season. Two losses can shuttle a top team to the opposite end of the standings, while two
wins can catapult a team up to the playoffs. This large middle ground means that there is a lot still to be settled.
As you all know – there isn’t a lot that can be predicted about the playoffs with four weeks remaining. So most of this article will focus on trends from our
six glorious years together. The few headlines I can share with you are these:
Double G is in
There is no scenario in which I do not make the playoffs. At the extreme, there can be seven 8-win teams, and since eight make it to the playoffs, I qualify.
Two year playoff drought. Done.
The story of the asterisk
The reason I say that I am in, and yet I do not have an asterisk by my team name in the standings is because Yahoo! only accounts for the record of the
9th place team in relation to your team. In this case, Nose has 5 losses, I have 1 and there are 4 games remaining. Which means if I lose out and Nose
wins out we will have the same record and it will come down to points. But based on the schedule it is impossible for the 8th and 9th place teams to each
have 8 wins. In order for Double G to get that (currently invisible) asterisk, I can either win or two 4-5 teams can lose this week.
Shermtanks Win they be In
Based on the same logic above, if the Shermtanks win eight games they will be in the playoffs. They may not get the coveted asterisk, but it will be
implied. At the same time, going winless these last four weeks could drop Shermtanks into a tie for the playoffs. However, because of points, even if this
were to happen Shermtanks would probably still qualify. Shermtanks will receive an asterisk with a win this week (by beating a 4-5 team, C3) and if one of
the three other 4-5 team loses this week.
Five Second Stare is Alive and Well
Even with a loss, 5SS CANNOT be eliminated. While at the same time, going undefeated does not guarantee a playoff berth. 5SS needs to win and needs
some help.
Record matters more than Points
One thing we always say to owners with a bad record but a high point total is that you will be safe – you have a lot of points. I wanted to find out if this was
true. I looked back over the Week 10 standings of the last six years and ranked the teams by W/L (the actual standings) and also by their points. I then
compared those two sorts to the final list of playoff teams. What I discovered was that the W/L record is a better indicator of whether the team eventually
makes the playoffs.
In 2002
- 7 of the top 8 ranked teams going into Week 10 made the playoffs
- 7 of the top 8 high scores going into Week 10 made the playoffs
- 7 of the top 8 ranked teams going into Week 10 made the playoffs
- 6 of the top 8 high scores going into Week 10 made the playoffs
- 7 of the top 8 ranked teams going into Week 10 made the playoffs
- 6 of the top 8 high scores going into Week 10 made the playoffs
- 6 of the top 8 ranked teams going into Week 10 made the playoffs
- 5 of the top 8 high scores going into Week 10 made the playoffs
- 7 of the top 8 ranked teams going into Week 10 made the playoffs
- 7 of the top 8 high scores going into Week 10 made the playoffs
- 7 of the top 8 ranked teams going into Week 10 made the playoffs
- 5 of the top 8 high scores going into Week 10 made the playoffs
Nuggets
Beyond the importance of discovering the value of a team’s record over a team’s points, I learned a few other interesting nuggets.
- First, the 8th ranked team going into Week 10 (this year it is C3) made the playoffs only one time – in 2006 when Marc finished the season 3-1.
- Second, only in 2005 did more than one team ranked below the 8-spot make the playoffs. In other words, every year but one, 7 of the top 8 teams
heading into Week 10 made the playoffs. A staggering and discouraging stat for those below the ROFFL Mason Dixon Line. - Third, in the past six years leading into week 10, the team in 14th place won the toilet bowl every year but once – in 2006 our first champ, Nick,
avoided the ignoble fate by having the same record, but scoring more points than Brian at the end of the season. This year, another former champ
finds himself in the 14 hole.
Fancy Charts (2002-2007)
These charts looked better in my head, but since I took the time to create them you have to take the time to scroll through them. Authorial Power.
The two charts show the same thing at different points of the season. Bell curve technology. The blue shaded area indicates the teams that eventually
made the playoffs, the red area represents those who missed it. The first chart shows the teams over the last six years as they stood going into Week 10.
For example, there have been five 7-win teams and all of them made the playoffs (all blue), while there have been four 2-win teams and none of them
made the playoffs (all red).
Interesting bits to take from this chart:
- 18 teams have had a 6-3 record and only one of them has ever missed the playoffs (I went 1-3 in 2005, while five other teams went 3-1 and one
other went 4-0) - And, to me, what is even more surprising is that only one 5-4 team has missed the playoffs (Cantor went 0-4 in 2005)
- Only one 3-6 team made it to the playoffs (Gregg finished the 2003 season with a 3-1 record and beat Navid into the playoffs by 6 points…also the
only year Navid missed the playoffs) - 9 of the 19 (4-5) teams through the years made the playoffs, ten did not. Most recently last year, one made it and two missed (Navid in, Marc and
Jarrett out) - Something not shown in this chart is that the lowest ranked team as of Week 10 to qualify for the playoffs is 12th place (Gregg in 2003)
What this chart really shows is that the playoffs come down to 7-6 and 6-7. No 5-8 team has ever made the playoffs and no 8-5 team has missed the
playoffs. And only one 7-6 team (MINE! Again!) has missed the playoffs. This year, every team is in range of that blue 6-7 target. Well…everyone except
mine and Jason’s. (zing!)
Streaking can be fun…
These last four games are crucial to playoff hopes.
Going 4-0: This has happened only six times in the last six years. Navid did it last year and every team to accomplish this season ending streak was
rewarded with a playoff berth. No team that went 4-0 at the end has ever won the championship.
Going 3-1: In the last six years, 22 teams finished the season with this streak. Of those 22 teams, only three missed the playoffs. Every other team made
the playoffs.
Going 1-3: This less than stellar streak has happened 19 times and only three teams came out of the skid into the playoffs. (not recommended)
Going 0-4: Dread the thought. This has happened to 8 teams over the years. And of that esteemed crew there are 2 Toilet Bowl Winners, three 13th
place finishes and even one playoff team (Brian in 2004, who had enough points to overcome a hard charging 3-1 team led by Nick)
Marc and Brian: Both of these owners have the same record this year as they had the last 2 years at this point. Marc went 3-1 in 2006 to make the
playoffs and finished 5th, in 2007 he went 0-4 and missed the playoffs. Brian went 1-3 both years and missed the playoffs both times.
Playoff Steaks: Some teams have lined up a few consecutive post-season appearances. Steaks that are on the line this year: Navid (last four years),
Brock, VA (last three years), Cantor, Josh, Sherman (last two years)
Playoff Droughts: While a few teams get used to being in the post-season, these teams haven’t been there for the last two years: Brian, Scott, Nick and
Dave.
Winning Seasons: These teams have a consecutive season winning streak on the line: Brock, VA and Navid (past three seasons have all been winning
seasons), Cantor, Josh and Sherman (past two seasons)
Losing Seasons: And some teams have just had bad luck for some time: Brian has had a losing season for the last five years, Dave for the last two and
Nick has NEVER had a winning season – maybe this will be his year!
Week 10 Games
Nomads vs. Colts: (5-4 vs. 5-4) This game will push one team into likely playoff territory, and it will drop the other back to the pack of bubble (gum) teams.
This game is probably more important for the Colts, as their remaining schedule includes only teams with the same record or below. Nomads plays NJJ
next week, so a loss here could be made up with a win next week.
Tools vs. FBC: (4-5 vs. 3-6) An FBC win and these two have the same record. FBC still has a shot at coming out with a winning record this season.
Peyton has a good upcoming schedule. Tools only play teams ranked below them – which means that the only way for this team to move up is for teams
above them to lose. Losses will be more costly for the Tools here on out.
5SS vs. fair trade: (2-7 vs. 4-5) The march back continues…Both owners pulled off trades this week in hopes of triggering a late season playoff push. 5SS
has the easiest remaining schedule in the league. The highest ranked team they play is Nose in the final game of the season. If 5SS strings a few
victories together – that game could be VERY meaningful. fair trade is looking for their first winning season in franchise history.
BDay vs Born: (3-6 vs. 5-4) guess who has more total points? But scoring points does not guarantee victories. We discussed this. BDay’s remaining
schedule includes all teams ranked above them – which means each victory will hoist them up closer to the playoffs and bring another team closer to
missing the playoffs. Born pulled off a trade for a new RB. The final game of Born’s regular season is against the Colts, another 5-4 team and owner of
Jonathan Stewart, the counterpart to Born’s new RB …
C3 vs. Sherm: (4-5 vs. 7-2) C3 has the hardest remaining schedule (Sherm, Born, Colts, NJJ – 23-13 record). C3 pulled off the first big trade of the year,
acquiring MJD – who when teamed with a healthy Reggie Bush could provide a strong core for a late charging team. Sherm is “in” the playoffs and if he
could bench his players to keep them healthy for the playoffs I am sure he would.
Pigs vs. Nose: (3-6 vs. 4-5) Both early season favorites are in a terrible free fall – which team will continue to fall? Btw, does anyone else miss Jarrett?
Because I do. Where are you buddy!? Nose has the lead in terms of record, but Nose’s point total is extremely low, and a few losses could drop this team
to the bottom of the standings very quickly. A loss for Pigs would be difficult as it would make 6-7 the best record possible with a game against (the HOT)
GG looming at the end of the year.
GG vs. NJJ: (8-1 vs. 6-3) Both appear safe, for now. NJJ has a difficult schedule ahead in terms of record (20-16), while GG has the opposite (16-20). NJJ’
s biggest concern is at QB. Losing two starting QBs in one season presents a big challenge, but hopefully a 6-3 record will insulate them from missing
post-season action.
Predictions and Commentary
This year reminds me a lot of the 2005 Season. Both years featured an 8-1 team, a single 7-2 team (with more points than #1), four 4-5 teams (ranked 7-
10) and three 3-6 teams. 2005 was the last year any team finished 6-7 and both of those 6-7 teams made the playoffs. That was also the only year a 5-4
team missed the playoffs and the only year that two teams ranked below 8th going into Week 10 made the playoffs. With the large group of bubble (gum)
teams, I think this season is anything but decided. I predict that over the next few weeks, teams will bob up and down in the standings and in the end I
would not be surprised to see two 6-7 teams return to the playoffs.
And in case you were curious who won the season in 2005. The team that won was that 7-2 team with the most points in the league. And the team that
won the Toilet Bowl? Shermtanks…okay, so its not exactly the same.
And remember no one can be eliminated this week!!
Good luck to everyone – and enjoy the games.
